Access to Destinations: Monitoring Land Use Activity Changes in the Twin Cities Metropolitan Region

Status:  Complete
Report Date:  07/28/2008


This report attempts to recast the process of modeling and forecasting land use change, a traditionally complex undertaking, in simpler terms. The report introduces models based on a few basic principles of land use change, and tests the models using data from the Twin Cities (years 1958 to 2005). Results of the modeling efforts indicate that none of the models presented are able to fully reproduce patterns of land use change over time. However, their simple and transparent structures are beneficial for certain sketch planning applications along with the ability to be extended rather easily and incorporate new features of urban growth processes to add complexity and realism to the models.

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