If They Come, Will You Build It? Urban Transportation Network Growth Models

Status:  Complete
Report Date:  12/17/2003


This report develops several models of historical roadway improvements in the Twin Cities metro area. Planners respond to, and try to shape, demand by recommending investments in new infrastructure and changes in public policy. Sometimes capacity is added to existing facilities. Other times, building new roads is the response. As a result of this research, the ways in which current network expansion or contraction decisions alter the choices of future decisionmakers has become clearer. This research develops a theoretical framework, constructs a comprehensive time series database describing network investment, utilization and capacity, estimates several statistical models, and interprets the results to guide planning.

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